Predicting tech trends, even with first-rate info and analysis, has always come down to a roll of the dice, with even the sharpest shooters crapping out more often than not. It’s one of the reasons our flying cars have yet to reach factory showrooms. More than that, it’s why early 20th century visionaries failed to grasp the scale of social consequences inherent in early autos, from the rise of bedroom communities and the suburban commuter society to the backseat-enabled shift in sexual mores.
Still, it’s worth having some skin in the game if your pockets are deep and you can afford to spread your bets. It only takes one or two good calls to make it all worthwhile and, besides, what’s more fun than betting on the future?
Joanna Pearlstein asked eight established trend-gurus how they make bankable predictions. Their answers ranged from pattern spotting to becoming an outsider to focusing on the now. Check it out at Wired.